Seed Cotton Price Decline, Cotton Enterprise Shipping Mentality Enhanced

In October, Zheng cotton showed a trend of rapid rising and then falling back, which also had a great impact on the purchase of new cotton this year. Especially in the middle of October, when the main force of Zhengzhou cotton cf2101 hit a high of 15300 yuan / ton, seed cotton also set the highest price since this year's listing. With the harvest of some ginning enterprises, as well as concerns about downstream demand, the enthusiasm for new cotton harvesting gradually declined, accompanied by the continuous decline in seed cotton prices.

As we all know, the price of new cotton has continued to rise since its listing this year, leading to the production of cotton costs and the actual market price hanging upside down, cotton enterprises increased pressure, basically no rush to sell lint. But in November, some cotton enterprises began to sell some new cotton through resale and packaging. The reasons are as follows:

First, the price of seed cotton fell, and the absolute cost of cotton enterprises decreased. Recently, the price of cotton picked by hand in Aksu was 7.4-7.6 yuan / kg, and that of machine picked cotton was 6.5-6.8 kg, down 0.5-0.7 yuan / kg compared with the peak in October. Although cottonseed also decreased, the price was still higher than last year. Therefore, the pressure on the cost side of cotton ginning enterprises has decreased; secondly, the prices of cf2101 and cf2105 of zhengmian futures are inversely linked. As a futures price discount with price discovery function, some enterprises' confidence in bullish forward market has been hit, and it is difficult to realize the strategy of selling hedging in the future, and the strategy of risk transfer between 1-5 contracts has become a bubble Third, the transaction rhythm of the downstream gauze spot is slowing down, textile enterprises are cautious about inquiry, forming constraints on cotton trading enterprises and processing enterprises to cash in time, and the attitude of selling at a price has changed; fourth, under the influence of the US election and the development of the global epidemic situation, the market is difficult to face the development of China's and even the global cotton textile industry An accurate assessment of the problem, coupled with the global oversupply of cotton, is not conducive to the continued upward repair of cotton prices. According to the latest forecast of ICAC, global cotton consumption will continue to be under pressure in 2020 / 21, and high inventory will restrain the rise of cotton price.