There Is A Vast Difference Between The Two! The Dyeing Factory Warms Up, The Raw Material Goes Up, But The Weaving Factory Can Only Look At The Empty Stock!

In late July, there was a "change" at the end of the dyeing plant. Shengze and Changshu regions both sent out signals that the number of individual dyeing plants began to increase. Some of the dyeing factory salesmen said that the number of warehousing began to increase, and the start-up of dyeing plants also increased. According to the monitoring, the current operating rate of dyeing plants increased from 55% in the early stage to 65%.

At the same time, in recent years, polyester manufacturers have also begun to test the price of polyester filament. The prices of various products have increased to varying degrees compared with last week, especially for FDY and POY products. And near the end of the month, polyester filament production and sales also have a good performance of more than 100.

Why is this rebound phenomenon due to the resonance between upstream and downstream?

1. PTA, ethylene glycol prices go up, polyester fiber get cost support

Since the bankruptcy, the oil market is still partly offset by the positive sentiment of the oil market in the near future. Under the strength of crude oil, the overall cost driving force of petrochemical industry continues to be strong. Affected by this, both PTA and ethylene glycol prices have rebounded, especially for ethylene glycol. Due to the recent slowdown in the growth rate of goods arriving at the port, although the shipment is average, the slow growth of inventory at the main port has supported the higher price of ethylene glycol. Although the price of PTA rose slowly, it was better than that in the early stage. Therefore, the end cost price went up and stabilized, which provided an effective support for the price of polyester filament. At the same time, the downstream release of the sound of the production and marketing of the market has played a very good cargo effect.

2. The orders of autumn and winter clothing fabrics enter the "window period"

It is understood that in the second half of the year, transactions of clothing fabrics in spring and summer continued to shrink, and orders mainly made of imitation silk began to weaken, while the proofing, samples and orders of autumn and winter clothing fabrics in the domestic trade market began to expand gradually. Therefore, the increase of orders for autumn and winter fabrics of dyeing factories was obvious, especially for elastic fabrics, and the market transaction atmosphere was more prominent.

Is the textile market rebounding in the off-season?

1. The "fault" between weaving and printing and dyeing: grey fabric inventory still has high risk

From the perspective of the industrial chain, printing and dyeing is in the downstream link of the fabric market. Since the downstream market releases the signal of improvement, is the trade side also performing better at the same time? In fact, it is not. Due to the impact of the epidemic situation, the order placing mode of terminal traders has changed this year. In the past, most orders were "large quantity and good price", but this year, the mode of "small batch and multi batch" was changed. "At present, the dyeing factory work is getting better, but the transaction is relatively miscellaneous. Now the single volume of 20000-30000 yuan in the factory is already a large order." Said a salesman in a dyeing factory. Therefore, the current market has not broken out in a large area, and dyeing factories are only partially covered with piles and some links are waiting in line. According to the survey, at present, the orders on hand of traders have not improved greatly, and many traders even began to have holidays and take turns in July.

Looking at the whole market, whether it is weaving or trading, holiday operation is more and more frequent. For textile boss, although there are orders from downstream customers, in the face of overcapacity market, these limited orders can not fill the "stomach" of each trading company. Therefore, the overall market situation is relatively mild, and there is no large-scale recovery. As a result, the orders of a small number of trading companies are improving, while most enterprises are still "short of orders" ”Status. Today, the market is weak even though the market is weak.

At present, the overcapacity of grey fabric is obvious, and many weaving factories have been on the alert for about two months. It is difficult to de stock the market. Therefore, many weaving factories still start to implement the plan of high temperature holiday and load reduction. In addition, there are still many uncertain factors in the recovery of foreign trade market, especially the rising trade friction between China and the United States, which has led to some countries' resistance to Chinese products. Therefore, it is still uncertain what kind of state the foreign trade market will recover in September and October this year.

2. The starting rate of polyester is high, but the contradiction is gradually accumulated

It is understood that the downstream purchase of polyester will undergo a series of changes in 2020. Before the Qingming Festival, there is a strong market panic, and polyester factories are facing the pressure of high inventory of polyester. Even if the price of polyester products has dropped to a new low in history, and large-scale discount and promotion are carried out, the downstream purchasing intention is still limited. After that, with the signs of improvement in the overseas epidemic situation, and polyester prices at a historical low, downstream sentiment began to improve. After May, the number of trial orders increased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment was high. The high inventory of finished products in the second half of the year continued to decline. After July, the terminal will also enter the off-season, with the accumulation of polyester end increasing and the inventory pressure increasing. Similarly, the profits of polyester end are also under constant pressure and will continue to narrow in the future.

On the other hand, the impact of the epidemic situation on the export market is more cautious, on the other hand, the impact of the epidemic situation on the export market is more cautious. At the same time, the number of overseas anti-dumping investigations on China's filament, yarn and other commodities increased, making it difficult for overseas orders to return to the pre epidemic level. Therefore, in the short term, the polyester sector is relatively healthy, polyester cash flow recovery, inventory decline, and startup rate remains high. However, if the sustainability of terminal demand is in doubt, the accumulation of polyester in the later period is expected to be strong, but the contradiction will move backward in the case of low inventory.

It is worth mentioning that at present, polyester production is still in the expansion cycle. The original plan is to put into production of 5.5 million tons in 2020. However, affected by the epidemic situation, the polyester production plan has been delayed, and only 1.75 million tons are put into production at present. The growth rate of terminal texturing and loom demand gradually slowed down, and the prosperity of polyester industry gradually fell.