2015 Xinjiang Cotton Target Price New Scheme Issued

Xinjiang recently announced the 2015 cotton The implementation plan for the pilot work of target price reform adjusted the "direct subsidy" method for cotton, Xinjiang Most regions will subsidize cotton farmers according to the sales volume. What impact will this adjustment have on the cotton market?

It is reported that it is time to harvest cotton in Xinjiang, but the weighing is not good. These two days, Sun Liwu, an analyst, is investigating the cotton market in Xinjiang. He learned that this year's weighing situation is slightly lower than that of last year.

Sun Liwu: The weighing time in northern Xinjiang is slower than that in southern Xinjiang, between 5 yuan and 6 yuan. From the overall situation of lint, the profit of cotton processing enterprises is not particularly good.

Sun Liwu introduced that the main reason why the cotton open scale price is not ideal is that the market terminal cotton spinning The market is waiting for the centralized listing of new cotton due to the weak acquisition willingness of processing enterprises, low processing rate, and the delayed commencement time of about 10 to 15 days compared with previous years.

According to the National Cotton Field Area Survey released by the National Cotton Market Monitoring System in May this year, the field area of Xinjiang in 2015 was 30.998 million mu, down 8.9% year on year. However, according to Sun Liwu's research, although Xinjiang has controlled the planting area, the expected output is still good.

Sun Liwu: In terms of cotton growth, the overall growth trend is good this year. It is estimated that the overall output will remain above 4 million tons, with a smaller decline.

Sun Liwu is not very optimistic about the market situation of Xinmian after its centralized listing. He believes that the current domestic cotton textile enterprises are not good, it is difficult to boost morale in a short time, and it is difficult for cotton prices to rise sharply in the future. Especially in the mainland, the cotton purchase price may fall below last year's price.

Sun Liwu: Mainland China, especially Shandong In northern Shandong, Binzhou and Dongying, cotton is affected to varying degrees by continuous rainy weather. Processing enterprises are faced with the problem of resource reduction. The quality of various regions may be uneven, which makes processing enterprises worried. On the whole, it has been postponed. The expected market price this year is 14000 per ton compared with last year, which may be 13000 this year, and it is also more likely to fall below 13000 later.

However, good news has also come recently. Xinjiang announced the implementation plan for the pilot work of 2015 cotton target price reform on the 14th. According to this plan, from September this year, 90% of the total amount of central subsidy funds will be supplied to cotton farmers according to the sales volume, and the remaining 10% will be paid to "basic farmers" for the cotton planting area in Kashgar, Hotan, Aksu regions and four southern Xinjiang prefectures of Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture.

In September of last year, the country implemented the cotton target price pilot work in Xinjiang for the first time, and cancelled the temporary purchase and storage of cotton at the same time. In that year, 60% of the central subsidy fund was paid according to the cotton planting area, and 40% was paid according to the actual sales volume. Li Li, a futures analyst, pointed out that the biggest change in this year's reform plan compared with last year is that this time the subsidies are dominated by output.

Li Li: In fact, according to the sales volume, cotton starts from September list The continuous sale is to make up as much as possible. It used to be the reported area. For example, in order to get subsidies, the over reported planting area said that 10 mu of land was planted, but actually only 6 mu was planted, so someone would occupy the space. This year, only 10% of the reported area is based on the sales volume, and 90% of the reported area is based on the sales volume. In this way, you can only get as much as you actually pay.

How to ensure cotton farmers get subsidies? This year, the subsidy distribution plan was adjusted. In the past, Xinjiang cotton "direct subsidy" was distributed by cotton harvesting enterprises on their behalf, and cotton harvesting enterprises applied for subsidies from the state according to the subsidy invoices issued to cotton farmers. In this regard, Li Yan, director of Xinjiang Fiber Inspection Bureau, said that in practice, there was a phenomenon that enterprises falsely issued invoices and applied to the state for subsidies, which encroached on the interests of cotton farmers.

Li Yan: If he only received 50 tons of cotton but issued an invoice for 100 tons, he can issue more invoices for 50 tons, but the central finance has a total amount. Xinjiang's cotton is more than 4 million tons a year, and the central government has paid so much. What if Xinjiang's enterprises issue 10 million tons of cotton? That is, the subsidies for farmers in Xinjiang have been diluted.

In order to protect the interests of cotton farmers and build a trading platform, this year, Xinjiang established a third-party storage organization to ensure the quality of cotton while also protecting cotton subsidies from being squeezed.

Li Yan: The professional third-party warehouse has such a ratio of how much cotton he has received and how much lint he has processed. In the supervised warehouse, the cotton can be put here for weight inspection to determine how much cotton he has received, which limits him to issue invoices, so the whole subsidy is orderly.